Friday, October 4, 2013

SAIC Spin-Off Quick Analysis

During August last year, SAIC announced its plan to split into two public companies. One company would focus on technical services and another on information technology products, including surveillance and intelligence programs. The spinoff is an effort to prevent conflict of interest, said John Jumper, chairman and chief executive officer. He also thinks it will "unleash growth and value." The technical services business will focus on “on government technical services and enterprise IT businesses,” and become one of the “largest, pure-play government services companies in the market.” This unit has pro forma FYE Jan 31, 2013 revenues of $4b. The solutions-focused business will focus on “delivering science and technology solutions in three high-growth markets that reflect high priority, long-term global needs – national security, engineering and health.” This unit has pro forma FYE Jan 31, 2013 revenues of $7b.

"In this next step of our strategic plan we configure ourselves for the future. Our two new companies will be designed so that their businesses can be more differentiated and more competitive in their own space. More importantly, that addressable space will expand for each as we eliminate the burden of organizational conflicts of interest (OCI)," said Jumper.

The spin-off has been completed last month. The purpose of this article is to analyze both the parent company (Leidos Holdings) and the spin-off company (SAIC) after the spin-off. In performing my analysis, I used Joel Greenblatt's framework specified in his book "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius."

                                                 SAIC

Reasons for Spin-Off

According to the 10-12B filing from SAIC, there are four major reasons for the spin-off: 

1. Reduce Regulatory Constraints in the Pursuit of Business Opportunities. Under the Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR), when a company has provided SETA (System Engineering and Technical Assistance) services for a particular U.S. Government program, it may be prohibited from selling products to the U.S. Government under the same program due to an organizational conflict of interest. The spin-off will allow us to expand the addressable market for our offerings that were previously constrained by OCI (organizational conflicts of interest) regulations. For example, a contractor that performs on a contract with a U.S. Government customer to provide system requirements for a military weapons system cannot also compete on a contract with the government customer to deliver the weapons system to meet those requirements. Similarly, the contractor that performs on a contract with a U.S. Government customer to deliver a weapons system may not also perform on a contract with the U.S. Government customer to conduct the test and evaluation on the weapons system to verify its performance and satisfaction of the system requirements. Both of these examples pose an actual or potential OCI not allowable under the FAR.

2.Strategic Focus of Management’s Efforts. Our business represents a discrete portion of Parent’s overall business. It has historically had different financial and operational requirements than Parent’s other businesses. The separation will allow us to better focus management’s attention on New SAIC’s business. 

3.Investment Focus. While operating as a part of Parent, the internal investments of the company were directed according to Parent’s strategic interests as a whole. The separation allows us to focus our investments on projects that generate returns for our business.   

4.Improved Management Incentive Tools. As an independent company, we will be able to better structure and incentivize our current and future employees through direct participation in the performance of the company through new equity compensation plans.  

It seems like SAIC's main motivation is similar to  what L-3 did with its spinoff: separating the slow growth, and headwinds-facing parts of its business and  removing internal conflicts, which could possibly bring in new business.

2. Insider Ownership and Compensation Structure:

Long-Term Incentive Awards
Historically
The amounts of these awards granted under Parent’s 2006 Equity Incentive Plan are determined based on market data and vary based upon an executive officer’s position and responsibilities.
Stock Options. Approximately 25% of the targeted total value of equity awards granted to New SAIC named executive officers in fiscal 2013 was comprised of stock options. These options vest 20% of the shares at the end of each of the first three years and 40% of the shares at the end of the fourth year and expire at the end of the seventh year. The objective of these awards is to link rewards to the creation of stockholder value over a longer term and aid in employee retention with a vesting schedule weighted toward the end of the option term. Parent believes that stock options motivate Parent executives to build stockholder value because they may realize value only if Parent’s stock appreciates over the option term.
Restricted Stock Units. Approximately 25% of the targeted total value of equity awards granted to New SAIC named executive officers in fiscal 2013 was in the form of restricted stock units (RSUs). These RSUs vest 20% of the shares at the end of each of the first three years and 40% of the shares at the end of the fourth year. RSUs are intended to provide a strong incentive for employee retention and promote the building of stockholder value.
Performance Share Awards. Approximately 50% of the targeted total value of equity awards granted to New SAIC named executive officers in fiscal 2013 was in the form of performance share awards that may result in shares being issued depending on the company’s achievement of specific financial performance goals for each fiscal year over the three-year performance period covering fiscal 2013 through fiscal 2015. In the first quarter of fiscal 2013, the Parent Committee set the performance goals for fiscal 2013 and approved the threshold, target and maximum performance share award amount for the entire three-year period, one-third of which is allocated to each of the respective three year performance periods and is set forth in the “Grants of Plan-Based Awards” table.
The following table sets forth the target number of shares and corresponding target value for performance shares awarded in fiscal 2013 for the three-year performance period covering fiscal 2013 through fiscal 2015, with the target number of shares based on the closing sales price of Parent’s common stock on the NYSE on the trading day before the grant date. The target grant date values were between 50% and 120% of base salary.










      Target Shares      Target Value  
  Anthony J. Moraco
     45,421       $ 600,000   
  John R. Hartley
     15,141       $ 200,000   
  Thomas G. Baybrook
     26,496       $ 350,000   
  Brian F. Keenan
     22,711       $ 300,000   
  Nazzic S. Keene
     31,546       $ 400,000   


The employee incentive plan sounds standard, with options, RSUs and other performance-based equity compensation making up the majority of compensation. Both options and RSUs have a 3-5 years vesting period so long term value creation is encouraged. Executives also have to give back their compensations if financial statements are restated.

3. Comparable Company Analysis:

Comparable Companies: EGL (L3 spin-off) and NOC.

I. Using Operating Earnings

NOC: 52 weeks trading between $13 billion to $21.4 billion, 2012 operating Income $3.13 billion. Price/Operating income ranges from 4.2-7.

EGL: 52 week trading between $300 million and $600 million, 2012 operating Income (excluding goodwill impairment charge) $97 million. Price/Operating Income ranges from 3-6.

Average of NOC and EGL - Price/Operating Income of 5x. Apply that to SAIC's  $281 million operating income, we will get a market cap of about $1.4 billion, or $28.6 per share.


                                       Leidos Holdings

Comparable Companies:
1. Verint Systems Inc (VRNT).
2.L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (LLL)
3. Honeywell Internationl (HON) 
 
I. Using Forward P/E

VRNT: 12.70

LLL:11.37
 HON:14.84

 Average: 13

13*3.64= $47.32 per share

Appendix:


LEIDOS HOLDINGS, INC.
UNAUDITED PRO FORMA
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF INCOME


















     Year Ended January 31, 2013  
           Pro Forma Adjustments        
(in millions, except per share amounts)
   Historical Leidos
Holdings, Inc.
    New SAIC
[A]
    Other     Pro Forma  
Revenues
   $ 11,165     $ (4,690 )   $ —        $ 6,475   
Costs and expenses:
  


 


 


 


Cost of revenues
     9,814        (4,237     —          5,577   
Selling, general and administrative expenses
     572       (68     —          504   
Separation transaction and restructuring expenses
     38       (28 )     (10 ) [B]      —     

  


   


   


   


 
Operating income
     741        (357     10        394   
Non-operating income (expense):
  


 


 


 


Interest income
     9       —          —          9   
Interest expense
     (93 )     —          —          (93
Other income, net
     8       —          —          8   

  


   


   


   


 
Income from continuing operations before income taxes
     665        (357     10        318   
Provision for income taxes
     (137 )     126       (4 ) [B]      (15

  


   


   


   


 
Income from continuing operations
   $ 528     $ (231 )   $ 6     $ 303   

  


   


   


   


 





Basic earnings per share from continuing operations
  


 


 


  $ 3.64  [C] 

  


 


 


 


 
Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations
  


 


 


  $ 3.64  [C] 

  


 


 


 


 
Weighted average number of shares outstanding:
  


 


 


 


Basic
  


 


 


    83  [C] 

  


 


 


 


 
Diluted
  


 


 


    83  [C]


 

LEIDOS, INC.
UNAUDITED PRO FORMA
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF INCOME


















     Year Ended January 31, 2013  
           Pro Forma Adjustments        
(in millions)
   Historical
Leidos, Inc.
    New SAIC
[A]
    Other     Pro Forma  
Revenues
   $ 11,165      $ (4,690   $ —        $ 6,475   
Costs and expenses:
  


 


    —       


Cost of revenues
     9,814        (4,237     —          5,577   
Selling, general and administrative expenses
     572        (68     —          504   
Separation transaction and restructuring expenses
     38        (28     (10 ) [B]      —     

  


   


   


   


 
Operating income
     741        (357     10        394   
Non-operating income (expense):
  


 


 


 


Interest income
     10        —          —          10   
Interest expense
     (93     —          —          (93
Other income, net
     8        —          —          8   

  


   


   


   


 
Income from continuing operations before income taxes
     666        (357     10        319   
Provision for income taxes
     (137     126        (4 ) [B]      (15

  


   


   


   


 
Income from continuing operations
   $ 529      $ (231   $ 6     $ 304  









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