Thursday, June 23, 2011

June 23rd

The market today kicked off with an expected dip followed by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments on the U.S economy yesterday. Although the Chairman's comments were nothing new, and I think the current U.S market has partially reflected most of the concerns over the health of the U.S economy, many traders were hoping for the Fed to take on QE3 when QE2 comes to an end in June. However, the Chairman did not provide any clue that the Fed will take any action soon.

With the above being said, I'll be closely watching the earnings season. Even though job data and other economic indicators have been very disappointing, once corporate earnings show some strength like they did in the April earnings season, I believe the market will head up despite the slower pace of recovery of the economy.

The trade I made today is National Penn Bancshares.Inc (NPBC, Nasdaq GS).
Shorted 500 shares at market open @7.61
Covered 500 shares @ 7.44.

Trade Rationale: 1. Price penetrated upper MA Envelope (10,5)
                 2. Yesterday's high was higher than the high of the day before.
                 3. Yesterday's close was lower than the close of the day before.
                 4. William's R% highly oversold

What I could've done differently:
1. Stocked actually gapped down at opening and it might be better to wait around     10:30 to take any actions.
2. The MA Envelope has just taken on an uptrend. It would be safer to take the trade had condition 1-4 occurred at a peak of the MA Envelope.

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